Renewed pandemic warning 

Source: CCTV.com

09-19-2006 09:30

The World Bank is issuing new warnings about the possibility of a bird flu pandemic among humans. It says a severe pandemic could cost the world two-trillion US dollars in a worst case scenario. The figure accounts for nearly five percent of the world economy's gross national product, up two and a half times previous estimates. The warning was issued during the I-M-F's annual meeting in Singapore. In Beijing, medical experts from 12 Asia-Pacific countries are discussing how the region is preparing itself for a possible pandemic. Zhu Yan brings us the latest.

Bird flu has killed more than one hundred and forty people since it re-emerged in Asia three years ago. Most deaths have been linked to contact with infected birds. Poultry farms have been severely hit. 220 million birds have been slaughtered in the past year, significantly impacting rural livelihoods, especially in poor areas.

Lance Jennings, Chairman of Asia-Pacific Advisory Committee on Influenza said, "This is the largest infectious disease amongst animals we've ever experienced. It's unprecedented in the history of influenza. As long as the virus circulates amongst poultry populations globally and exposes humans, we will see ongoing human infections occurring, so we must do everything possible to control it."

Bird flu has gone global in the past year, spreading from southeast Asia to South Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. More than fifty countries have reported H5N1 bird flu virus outbreaks.

David Nabarro, Co-ORD. of UN avian and human influenza said, "You can take it from me this virus is continuing to move into different parts of the world and continuing to affect the bird population, it's continuing to threaten the human as well through these individual cases or clusters that we see from time to time."

It's believed that the bird flu virus is carried and spread by migratory birds as well as via the trading of live poultry. Improved surveillance as well as enhanced farm and market bio-security measures have been put in place. Vaccine research and production has also been stepped up. Yet, no one can rule out a possible outbreak among humans.

Lance said, "We will have an human influenza epidemic. We don't know when and we don't know how severe it is. The current avian influenza situation, circulation of H5N1 strain virus globally is of real concern."

What concerns public health experts is the possibility that the H5N1 virus may mutate into a new kind of virus that is easily transmitted from human to human. Fortunately, this has not happened today. Yet, the threat is real.

Editor:Sun Luying