Home | China | World | Business Federal Reserve Chief Sees Moderate U.S. Economic Recovery THU, FEB 28, 2002     U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday that the U.S. recession is closing to an end but he cautioned that the recovery will be moderate. "Despite the disruptions engendered by the terrorist attacks of September 11, the typical dynamics of the business cycle have re-emerged and are prompting a firming in economic activity," Greenspan told the House Financial Services Committee. The Fed chief cited a variety of signs of strength in recent months, noting particularly strong gains in consumer spending. "In the past several months, increasing signs have emerged that some of the forces that have been restraining the economy over the past year are starting to diminish and that activity is beginning to firm," he said. Greenspan said the central bank expected the economy will grow by between 2.5 percent to 3 percent this year, when measured from the fourth quarter of last year. That would represent about half the pace of the normal rebound from a recession. "An array of influences unique to this business cycle, however,seems likely to moderate the speed of the anticipated recovery," he said. Greenspan said he is looking for a subdued recovery because consumer spending, the normal driver for growth in the early months of a rebound, held up remarkably well last year, giving it less room to expand this year. Meanwhile, Greenspan said the recession, which began last March and was worsened by the terror attacks, was shaping up as one of the mildest in U.S. history. He attributed this favorable outcome in part to advances in computer technology that give companies real-time information allowing them to adjust quickly to changing economic conditions. The Fed also projected the country's unemployment, currently at 5.6 percent, will rise in coming months to 6-6.25 percent even as the recovery gathers steam. Inflation was forecast to be moderate this year, with the price index for personal consumption expenditures increasing by about 1.5 percent, little changed from the 1.3 percent gain of 2001. Editor:Zhong Source:Xinhua Recommend to your friend email:    China Central Television,All Rights Reserved